สถาบันวิจัยวิทยาศาสตร์สาธารณสุข

National Institute of Health of Thailand

Value forecasting models of dengue haemorrhagic fever cases in north-eastern region.

Authors : Chitti Chansang*, Prakong Phan-Urai*, Usavadee Thavara*, U-ruyakorn Chansang*, Apiwat Tawatsin*, Supon Paosriwong*


Affililations:       *Division of Medical Entomology, Department of Medical Sciences.

           
Source:              Communicable Disease Journal 1997; 23(1): 71-78
 
Language:         Thai with English abstract
 
Abstract:
 
The objective of this study was to find the suitable forecasting equation of cases of Dengue haemorrhagic fever (D.H.F.) in north-eastern region. The first step was the selection of representational provinces in each group by cluster analysis, using cases of D.H.F. per 100,000 population of each province in north-eastern region between 1981-1993 By clustering and selecting representational provinces of each group, Nakhon Ratchasima, Roi Et, Nakhon Phanom, Nong Khai and Loei were selected. The suitable forecasting equations of cases of D.H.F. was determined by using multiple regression. From analysis of epidemiological and meteorological data for selected provinces in North-Eastern region between 1981-1995, it was found that suitable equations were: for Nakhon Ratchasima Y = 05.65X1 + 00.04 X2 - 26.73 X3 + 75.96 (R2 = 0.60); for Nong Khai Y = 14.01X1- 00.45 X2 + 15.63 X3 - 32.92 (R2 = 0.88); for Loei Y = 06.36X1- 00.12 X2 - 00.29 X3 + 06.44 (R2 = 0.61). No suitable equations were found for Nakhon Phanom and Roi Et.